Oil futures opened the year with a modest decline as the continuing Ukraine-Russia war and rising Middle East tensions countered concerns about oversupply.

Neil Crosby, an analyst with Sparta, said the relatively small movements in oil prices suggest the market believes there is a low risk of a larger conflict between the U.S. and Venezuela.

Oil exchange-traded funds opened higher on Tuesday, tracking a rise in crude futures as investors weigh the immediate supply impact from Venezuela and hedge their market exposure.

Oil futures fell Sunday night in the first trading session since the U.S. ousted Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro and President Trump subsequently pledged to dispatch American drillers to revive the country’s crude output.

"The physical global oil market situation remains the same. Oil prices have declined due to an oversupplied global oil market."

The Middle Eastern crude oil market is showing more signs of weakness amid growing concerns about a global glut that could drag prices still lower. The discount of the regional Dubai benchmark to Brent crude oil futures was at the widest since August on Monday,

When prices are steady companies can plan ahead with greater confidence. Last year, oil fell about 20%. Deal activity by the number of transactions declined 10%, despite an otherwise banner year for M&A across other industries. Gibbins, for his part, is bullish on steady prices in the high 50s to low 60s in 2026.

Oil prices have slid this week on the prospect of higher Venezuelan crude output, though they recovered on Thursday, with U.S. crude rising 0.7% to $56.38 a barrel, while Brent crude futures advanced 0.68% to $60.37 per barrel.